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If the World Cup was like March Madness, how would Italy do?

   

Shamelessly stolen from the front page of WorldCupBlog.

Daryl has a great post up today. He takes all 32 teams that qualified for the world cup, ranks them based on FIFA rankings, and then designs an NCAA-esque table to see what the matchups would be like in an alternate, basketball-infused universe. Instead of group stages and knockout rounds, this is straight up knockout rounds. It starts out with the top ranked team (Spain) facing the bottom ranked (North Korea), and the winner goes on to face the winner of another bracket. How would Italy fare?

Our initial matchup, courtesy of the graph on Daryl’s site, would be against South Korea. Blotting out the memory of 2002, I think we would be able to get past that. If we did, then Italy would go on to play the winner of Chile-Slovenia. Both are pretty decent teams but again, I think a win would be expected. After this it gets tougher, and predicting who we would play is also tough, since there’s quite a few games that have to occur and thus we would have to make a lot of assumptions. That being said, we would probably play one of England or Germany. Assuming Italy get past that, it’s most likely one of Argentina or Spain, barring an upset, and that’s just the semifinal.

In essence, the teams we face there go South Korea- Chile/Slovenia- England/Germany- Argentina/Spain. In reality, we actually play Paraguay, New Zealand, and Slovakia in the group stages, and then probably the Netherlands/Cameroon. After that, we could face Spain or Brazil, depending on how we do in the group stages.

So do you think this is easier or harder than the real World Cup format? It’s definitely riskier, as one loss eliminates you, whilst in the group stages, you can lose once and still progress (usually) by winning the remaining two games in the group. It’s also a shorter tournament. If you win all games and make it to the final, you play 5 games total, whereas in reality you have to play 7 games to make it to the final thanks to the group stage. On the other hand, you could argue that this is more exciting since every game is high risk.

Personally, I like football as it is. Sure, this NCAA style might be riskier and thus more exciting, but the group stages are a little better at rewarding consistency. Afterwards, the knockout rounds are basically the same as these, but I feel it might be a tad bit more fair having group stages first, where an unlucky or fluke loss won’t be as harmful.


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  • http://italy.worldcupblog.org/ Julian

    I just realized I completely forgot to say which is tougher. Both get really hard in the latter knockout stages, but I fancy our chances against the Netherlands/Cameroon and then Brazil/Spain over England/Germany- Argentina/Spain. At least in the former, there’s a 50% chance that we won’t have to face a truly world class team in the first knockout round. Playing Capello and then Loew’s teams followed by del Bosque or Maradona’s would be absolutely brutal.

  • michele-dellacroce(asr)

    i think, given italy’s history in major tournaments we’d probably crash out more often than not. we are notorious slow starters, and sometimes look very unconvincing in our groups. the team always takes a bit to gel, and acclimatise, so to speak, to the tournament. we need a few games to get the machine turning, once we’re out of the group, we’re a whole different animal. but it is neat to think about how we would do.

  • Vivaldi
  • Jean-François

    Julian, in response to whether the bracket would make the world cup more exciting, I believe that the group stage is a nice build up towards the elimination rounds, if it was elimination rounds all the way though it would mean less matches to watch.

  • Mike

    I don’t believe we “started slow” 4 years ago. We are classified “slow starters” which annoys me, but lest we not forget 2006. Forza Azzurri

  • Mike

    In regards to the post, why not have 4 8 team groups. Play each team once, and then the 32 teams are ranked based on record, and the rest that are tied are separated by Goal Differential, Goals For etccc…. I like how the Olympic Hockey was set up, with all 12 teams going through regardless of posistion in the group stage, and it gives everyone a shot. They should have something that leads up to this “March Madness” format. Just a thought

  • jed

    this post begs the question:

    should we also have a skills (dribbling and passing) competion as well as a free kick contest, similar to the all star game???

    (sarcasm)

  • http://italy.worldcupblog.org Julian

    Man you guys just love these kind of posts don’t you?

    And we do have a reputation for being slow starters. I mean, seriously, we tied the US last World Cup. We were dreadful during the Confederations’ Cup and even then we won 3-1.

  • Andrea

    I don’t think this format could ever work in football, which is more chaotic than basketball. If you miss a three in basketball, it’s normally not a huge deal. If you concede a goal in football, it’s huge. That’s why so many knockout rounds would just favour flukes and chance rather than real quality.

    And Italy do have a reputation for slow starters, one well-deserved I think.

  • Marco

    Well, Mourinho is doing more than just about anyone else in saving face for Serie A. Bravo to Inter on a Job well done. I reckon this defeat all but guarentees the next coach of the azzurri will be Carlo Ancellotti.

  • http://ianelford.blogspot.com Ian

    Exactly, the slow start would kill us every time. We need the chance to gel through the group stage first. Facing South Korea, with the mental block that would bring (similar to Roma-Livorno) would not be fun with elimination on the line in the first match.

    More important than anything else, of course, is money, and money comes from TV rights. And TV rights aren’t worth as much when half the teams in the tournament only play 1 game, and 24/32 only play 2. The current format is much preferred.

  • mikederob

    rubbish post…come on guys, we’re not all american here

  • Marco

    seriously

  • Italia2006

    From CL today.

    Winner -> Inter & Jose Mourinho (Serie A, atleast will have a team in QF)

    Loser -> Chelsea, Carlo and Balotelli (and his advisors)

  • Tony

    mikederob, its not often we can agree on something, but have to say you hit the nail on the head.

  • matty t

    theres a reason y march madness isnt that famous as the world cup, this post backs my ideaaa, stupid posttttt,

  • Marco

    Italia2006, I’d agree with that assessment. However,

    Today was actually a big win for Serie A. The quality of football has been continuously berated by the english media/commentators. Today put a hush to some of the ignorant comments we’ve been hearing over the last several years. Aside from the Milan v. ManU and ManU v. Roma draws over the last couple of years, Italian teams for the most part have been unlucky not to progress to higher stages in the champions league. Today showed that an english team can suffer the same fate. Although I have to also admit Inter were tactically superior.

    This match has further ramifications on the World Cup. The very strong back line of Inter is similar to what Brazil/Argentina will be fielding at the world cup. They showed far more confidence, endurance, tact then that of the Juventus/Azzurri back line. A funny comment was made during the match today. A friend of mine turned to me as we watched the chelsea onslaught between the 35th minute and the 60th minute – he remarked “Can you imagine if Cannavaro had been playing for Inter today” Sadly there was a time when having Fabio dressed for a match of this magnitude would have been a serious advantage.

    In the mix of muddled, ignorant comments on Cassano and Balotelli, Lippi remarked that it does not phase him that he is going to the world cup with an old team. I know I’ve been a ‘little’ tough on lippi since his second tenure began, but I have to also blame the players for this situation as well. There once was a guy named Paolo Maldini. He retired at a ripe old age from Milan. Something which at the time I considered to be something long overdue. However, there is a compliment for him. At the age of 33 Paolo Maldini, despite not accomplishing his life long dream of winning the world cup, retired from the national team following the 2002 world cup. It was evident in that world cup that he no longer had the legs capable of running circles around opposing players. However, he was still world class. Fast forward to today. Players like Cannavaro, Grosso, Zambrotta, Gattuso, etc. lack the tact and elegance of a player like Maldini. While Maldini knew his time had come and gone, these current crops of veterans seem to be digging their nails into the Azzurri. One can almost be assured that following the world cup Cannavaro will continue to seek a spot on this team. *there is substance to this ramble. I haven’t commented on this board in a couple of weeks and need to vent frustrations!

    On another note, back to Italia2006’s comment.

    I reckon it definitely is a loss for Balotelli’s management team, who in recent weeks have been running around attacking Mourinho in the media. There is truth, I hate to admit it, in Mourinho’s decision. Watching today you could see Pandev, and Eto tracking back and defending at times during the match. Milito hustled the back line and the keeper trying to force errors. Balotelli doesn’t track back, and can be lazy at various points in a match. Which I’d like to touch on Milan for a second.

    Milan’s main problem aside from having a very old and incapable team, played three strikers against Manchester. All THREE, including the pylon Borriello DO NOT track back. That causes serious difficulties when your team is on the defensive. Another thought, WHAT was lippi thinking for calling up Bonera? Why not call up Favalli too! This call up alone sums up lippi’s second tenure as manager – OUT OF TOUCH!

    Finally, there was a win today for Italy and the Azzurri. The likelihood Carlo Ancelotti will be canned at chelsea has just gone through the roof. I fully expect him to be named manager of the Azzurri come June 2010. To be honest, I’d appreciate Prandelli or Walter Mazzari over Ancelotti for the Azzurri post, however, both Prandelli and Mazzari need more experience in European Competition. Ancelotti is a natural successor to Lippi and would be a logical step forward.

    I know this has nothing to do with March Madness, but what does March Madness have to do with the state of the Azzurri anyway ;)

  • http://www.soccer.com soccer mania

    Italy boss Marcello Lippi has refused to get all excited after Inter’s victory over Chelsea last night because there weren’t any Italians on the pitch.
    Let the show begin; Inter are the only italian team in the quarter-finals for the champions league, yesterday they played super football, terrific defence: I wish Lippi would consider some tactics from Mourinho who outclassed Lippi in defence style. Thiago Motta played wonderful game, he has an Italian citizenship and would very much like to deliver his services to the Azzurri but Mr. Lippi slammed the door on him, why because and I insist Lippi does not consider Motta an Italian!! Lippi was desperately needed Nesta to come out of international retirement, why simply because he knows more than anyone else the Azzurri have a problem in the defence, I believe the smart coach would call up the most in form player such as Thiago Motta to solve the problem. I believe that his statement after the superb performance of Inter-Milan came out because Lippi is in envy situation and he is jealous, he does not want to admit the mistakes he has done and doing coz Mr. Lippi himself is a world cup winner so in this manner Lippi thinks that he is always right and able to do right things. HMMMMMM I doubt that. Balloteli is a mad man and he is not a team player, he is talented and would very much like to see him in world cup 2010, but he needs structure, Inter win over Chelsea has shown that a good tactician can mobilize the players according to the status of the game. Lippi in 2006 was a wonderful tactician, apparently he lost his touch now and will vanish in wc 2010. I admit that now a days I do not like to see the Azzurri playing, it is not my Azzurri, it is not the Azzurri I know. And Marco I fully agree with your comment. If the World Cup was like March Madness, how would Italy do? Currently italy will not do much, due to the fact the Azzurri is an old age and to challenge MAD teams you have to be young and strong. ciao

  • michele-dellacroce(asr)

    i’ve said it once, i’ve said it a thousand times.
    i would rather lose in the WC, then win with 3 brazilians and a ghanian. one of the things that i admire about lippi is that he only calls up italian men. your papers do not count, it’s your blood. rossi and camoranesi, yes were not born in italy, but their parents gave them 100 percent italian blood. that’s what counts. and besides, i HATE thiago motta, he’s an incredibly dirty player and, not very skilled.

  • Madness

    March Madness is a local term. Outside of US, nobody cares or knows what it means.

    You guys claim to know soccer (we call it football), but you are ruining it with the March madness nonsense.

    What else you guys will come up with? Four quarters a game? Allow time out?

    Stop it already! And you still call yourself Italians?

  • Paolo

    @ michele-dellacroce

    Have to disagree with your last comment. I used to think that way too. Viewing Italians or any nationality by how much or how little blood is not what makes them Italian. If any black, white, Asian, African, Brazilian, man considers himself Italian and wants to wear his heart on his sleeve to represent the country he loves, deserves to put on the blue shirt. In fact way more than the full Italians who rep Italia half heartedly.

  • gigi

    Ferrari is 1-2 back at the top of motor sport .. Inter knocked out chelsea .. Juve beat fulham last week .. lmao maybe the 2009 curse has been lifted where those pesky britts thought they were best at everything.. wc 2010? Italia .. I dont like lippi or his selection but fuck it lets win eh.

  • Cubby Azzurri

    To Mikedrob, MattyT, Madness, et al. What is your problem? Why would it upset you to compare the World Cup (and its not as if they are going to or should change the World Cup format) to an incredibly exciting tournament that happens to be an American thing? It’s not as if basketball is some obscure sport like curling that the world has never seen. Julian and Daryl are just trying to come up with an interesting post and I applaud them for it. Maybe try to broaden you horizons and see what March Madness is all about before ignorantly criticizing.

  • http://italy.worldcupblog.org/ Julian

    I think perhaps I wasn’t too clear in my intentions with the post. I wasn’t trying to say it should change to be like this – hell, I spent the last couple of paragraphs stating that I like the World Cup as is. This was supposed to be more of a fun post, to see “Hey, IF the Cup was like this, and IF these teams got drawn together in such a way, how would Italy do?” I guess that got lost along the way.

  • mikederob

    nobody is having a go at american sports or anything, it’s just that March madness doesn’t mean anything to a lot of this blog’s readers. Julian, i understand you were just trying to have a bit of fun, but a blog like this means that those of us who aren’t american cant really get involved. With the world cup coming up, there is so much to discuss and argue about!

  • Marco

    I suggest we talk Cassano! Cassano… who?

  • mikederob

    im hoping next tournament giovinco is able to play. Here’s hoping that when his injury is over, Juve give him some well overdue game time.

  • michele-dellacroce(asr)

    sorry paolo, but italy is different from canada, or the us. it is not a country of immigrants. look at germany, do we really want our team to look like that? this is the world cup, where nations should be represented by the ethnic people of that country. not by talented players who have the necessary papers. i’m all for acceptance for everyone, but for a tournament like this, it should be e.g italy vs germany, NOT 6 italians, a few ghanians, and chinaman vs 5 germans, a croatian, couple swedes and a russian.
    get my drift?

  • Marco

    The remarks by some people are astonishing for the 21st century. Really. You’d expect a little more sensibility and education towards the subject of migration and immigration, considering that everyone, at any given point in time, migrated or immigrated from another region, landmass, country, continent, etc.

    I don’t think some outrageous liniage is important for being selected by a national team. You shouldn’t need to prove the number of generations your family has lived in a country. The rule should be simple. For instance, my belief is that 1. The player must be born in the country he wants to play for. or 2. The player must be the only generation born in the new country to play for the country of origin.

    For example:
    Guessepe Rossi: Born in the USofA but parents born in Italy, vis-a-vis he is able to play for Italy or the USA.

    Balotelli: Parents born in Ghana, Balotelli born in italy, adopted by Italian family, vis-a-vis he is eligable to play in Italy.

    Amauri: Crack pot from Brazil, marries an italian, wants to play for italy. Guess what, only Brazil.

    I wouldn’t even select Cameronessi for the azzurri. He has italian origins but isn’t italian.

    I agree that people should play for their country, not like what the french have done with their national team. But let’s keep the racial slurs to a minimum. Players like Okaka and Balotelli are Italians, they are born in the country, they have been raised in the country, and they have been raised as italians. Let’s stop being ignorant of the fact that Italians like everyone else comes in all shapes, sizes and colours.

  • WC10

    To the attention of Mr. michele-dellacroce(asr):
    I am very sad to hear your comments, they are very much based on ethnic issues and not football related issues. To Marco: quoting what you have said “not like what the french have done with their national team” hmm Zidan played as no other french player and represented France from the heart, his achievements the World Cup and Europe Cup. To everyone who writes about a player originally from brazil and player from ghana, I remind you all that we are all humans; black or white we are all humans. Racism and such ethnic topics shows the ugly side of a person. Let us draw our comments smartly and with open heart. I dare anyone to challenge me the love I have for Italia, but THANKS GOD I am not racist and I do love football and I like to see talented players that love to play for Italia to be called up for Azzurri, for me I like to see a player who hold Italian citizenship of which he is eligible to play for Azzurri to represent Italia, as long as he is talented and willing to give it all for Italia. However, Lippi did concede that multi-nationalism was a prominent feature of all the top European sides, including those from Italy. I remind you of Lippi saying: “Is there any Italian in Inter, with all their nationalities and a foreign coach”, it is a disgrace from a national coach to say such a thing reminding that there is Ballotelli and Santon who are incredibly talented young players needing support and attention to be one of the best. What a shame really when you mix racial issues with football and football is a language of entertainment. One last thing if Ballotelli and Okaka represents Italia and win a world cup what would you say, what would your comments be?! I am Italian from Sicily and I say that some of you are writing comments without sense and understanding of todays football. Thank you so much for your time.

  • Marco

    wc10, zidane is a very poor example. What france have done is grant passports and playing status to players from ‘their’ ‘colonies.’I'm sure before you go on a rant lumping me in with any racist here you do your home work and understand why/how colonial powers of the 1500-1900’s were extremely racist and how france continues to portray themselves as a hegemonic power over these countries – Algeria, Lebanon, etc. *or at least try desperately to impose themselves* Hand picking players from your former colonies is NOT a sign of respect towards human beings. It’s a sign of disrespect towards sovereign nation states, it makes them look like inferior. The french tactic is not a kosher one, at the world cup finals in 2006 France started only FOUR french players, that’ll likely diminish for this years world cup – how is that even a national team?

    As I’ve said, multiculturalism is a fact of life, it’s happened before its happening now. The world is a smaller place today and we need to respect each other.
    Yet, it’s not multiculturalism grabbing players from african countries, sticking their families in ghettos around paris, and putting a label on their ass saying “Property of France” – there’s a difference,

  • michele-dellacroce(asr)

    gesu..balotelli is NOT italian. he is black! are you people blind? if i moved to china, got my citizenship, learned chinese fluently, i am still NOT chinese. my blood is not chinese.
    you people must distinguish the difference between europe and countries like the us and canada.
    it does not matter where you are born!!!! it’s you’re family. i’m not being racist, i just don’t want to see the WC being some big happy multi-culture fest where anyone can play for any country. that defeats the whole purpose! we have leagues for that!
    i’m all for multiculturalism, living in canada it’s absolutely wonderful. but when it comes to tournament of this magnitude, this stature, we must have a country, represented by the ethnic people of that country.

  • Paolo

    @ michele-dellacroce

    It’s not like that no more. And to some extent, i agree with what you’re saying. But it’s not right. We’re gonna determine who’s born where and who his loyalty lies with. It’s not the mafia. These are ppl representing a country they love. Regardless where they’re born. If they consider themselves Italian, and want to represent the country they love, they should have that right, and like i said, more so than the players who do it half assed. On the other hand, having it be like that would be up to those who control their domestic leagues, and having so many Italians stray away from serie A and having so many foreigners come into it, does not help the situation, so as others have said, we’re in the 21st Century and we adapt to those circumstances. I don’t think anyone would complain if we had a balotelli that scored twice every game of the season and won every game for Italy…….We would all have him then, why wouldn’t we except the ones who express the same desire without that technical ability?

  • Paolo

    If a chinese man won a war for Italy, Italy wins the war, not the chinese man.

  • Catalogue

    Michele-dellacroce(asr), I can see what you’re trying to say, wouldn’t be funny to see national teams being represented by people of random, different ethnicities. Or to see England “buys” Messi from Argentina for some hundred million Pounds. It does kind of beat the purpose.

    But still I’d think that if you moved to China, got your citizenship, and learned Chinese fluently, you are pretty much Chinese. Nowadays we have nations, governmental institutions, not tribes and all their ethnic exclusivisms. It’s ridiculous, the world is a different place now.

    I suppose, then, you have to draw a line somewhere. It shouldn’t be determined by “blood” or all that crap, but perhaps whether you grew up in the country or have otherwise strong connections to it. Of course you can’t play for Italy just because your mother’s stepbrother is Italian. But Balotelli, for example, was born and raised in Italy. He’s Italian.

  • Vivaldi

    When there is distinctive culture of each country, the world is colorful. When you melt culture together, there is one mixed unrecognizable color. Anyone like pizza? I mean with burrito wrapped inside with salsa? Don’t kill individaul culture. We should protect them.

    I would not listen to Korean playing Vivaldi’s. Hey, no German can play Vivaldi with true Italian sensibility. They played too reserved, aka boring. They should keep playing Bach.

  • gio

    #1 – give Julian a break. did all of you guys even read what he was saying? just posing a hypothetical question to muse on. if you do not have any ‘musing capcity’, then don’t try it and move on. no need to get all uppity about it.

    #2 – “Italy is not a nation of immigrants” – where do you live my friend. the north of Italy probably has more immigrants per capita than most of the US. and you do not think Italy has not had it’s fair share of immigrants since … well, before Christ? genetic data is now indicating that early Etruscans (some of the most indiginous to the geophysical region we now call Italy) are most closely related to Caucasians (that’s peoples from the Caucasus region, i.e. Armenia, Georgia, Ossetia). over the centuries, with the relocation of the Greeks to the peninsula, Phonecians, Carthaginians, expansion of the Roman empire and its influx of foreigners, Norman invasions, Celts, Vandals, etc., you guys really think there is such a thing as genteically pure Italian?

    i’ll give you guys like Amauri shouldn’t play. he has no real connexion to Italy. but Balotelli is Italian. he grew up here and spent more than half his life here (about 9/10ths of his life actually). that is a lot more than all the other faux-Frenchies running around playing for France (not that i am comparing the two, but i certainly do not want us to become like France).

    so stop being so black and white (literally and figuratively). “Italian” is a much broader term than you are recognising.

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