If the World Cup was like March Madness, how would Italy do?
Shamelessly stolen from the front page of WorldCupBlog.
Daryl has a great post up today. He takes all 32 teams that qualified for the world cup, ranks them based on FIFA rankings, and then designs an NCAA-esque table to see what the matchups would be like in an alternate, basketball-infused universe. Instead of group stages and knockout rounds, this is straight up knockout rounds. It starts out with the top ranked team (Spain) facing the bottom ranked (North Korea), and the winner goes on to face the winner of another bracket. How would Italy fare?
Our initial matchup, courtesy of the graph on Daryl’s site, would be against South Korea. Blotting out the memory of 2002, I think we would be able to get past that. If we did, then Italy would go on to play the winner of Chile-Slovenia. Both are pretty decent teams but again, I think a win would be expected. After this it gets tougher, and predicting who we would play is also tough, since there’s quite a few games that have to occur and thus we would have to make a lot of assumptions. That being said, we would probably play one of England or Germany. Assuming Italy get past that, it’s most likely one of Argentina or Spain, barring an upset, and that’s just the semifinal.
In essence, the teams we face there go South Korea- Chile/Slovenia- England/Germany- Argentina/Spain. In reality, we actually play Paraguay, New Zealand, and Slovakia in the group stages, and then probably the Netherlands/Cameroon. After that, we could face Spain or Brazil, depending on how we do in the group stages.
So do you think this is easier or harder than the real World Cup format? It’s definitely riskier, as one loss eliminates you, whilst in the group stages, you can lose once and still progress (usually) by winning the remaining two games in the group. It’s also a shorter tournament. If you win all games and make it to the final, you play 5 games total, whereas in reality you have to play 7 games to make it to the final thanks to the group stage. On the other hand, you could argue that this is more exciting since every game is high risk.
Personally, I like football as it is. Sure, this NCAA style might be riskier and thus more exciting, but the group stages are a little better at rewarding consistency. Afterwards, the knockout rounds are basically the same as these, but I feel it might be a tad bit more fair having group stages first, where an unlucky or fluke loss won’t be as harmful.
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