Exhibit (A) Germany v. Italy – Reunion @ Dortmund

February 8th, 2011 | by: Marco | Comments Off

Germany v. Italy – Dortmund – 9th February, 19:45 GMT

It’s one of the rarest exhibitions in football – one that actually has all the ingredients to be an instant cracker of a match. Rarely in the world of football do you find a draw that has two spectacular teams pitted against each other in an ominous rematch from the fabled classic Semifinal (the 2006 FIFA WORLD CUP). Both teams, Italy and Germany, have been on two very different trajectories since that extravagant  (depends on your perspective) Semifinal in Dortmund nearly 5 years ago.

To refresh your memory here are the highlights from our last encounter against Germany.

Introduction to the match.

As indicated above this is no timid affair. Italy v. Germany matches have always been interesting regardless of the competitiveness or backdrop of the match. There is always a little flair in the air when they arrive onto the same pitch, and the matches usually have a way of turning up some pleasant surprises and new heroes to the genre of football. The history between these two rivals is a long and bitter journey.

Italy and Germany first faced off on New Years Day in 1923 in Milano with a 3-1 drubbing by the Azzurri. The most recent notable matches between these two European powerhouses was the 1982 World cup final (Italy 3 – 1 Germany) and the 2006 World cup Semi final (Italy 2 – 0 Germany).  So what’s the overall record? Well since that inaugural match in 1923 the record is as follows: Italy 14 – Draws 8 – Germany 7. We have a commanding presence on the pitch; important things to remember (statistically speaking) about tomorrow’s game: (a) We have not played Germany since the 2006 World Cup (b) We have not lost to Germany since 21/06/1995 at Zurich when the score was Germany 2:0 Italy. (c) Germany have never beaten us in a World Cup Final or European Championship (d) The largest scoring margin in our history with Germany has been  Germany 5:2 Italy back on November 26th 1939 in Berlin.

With the historical context being set, we move forward to what has happened since our 2006 World Cup Semifinal victory over the host country – Germany.

Italy: FIFA ranking #13

Our history over the last 5 years has been clearly documented on this forum. We went from World Cup Champions in 2006 to a dismal performance at Euro 08 where we were ousted by eventual champions Spain in the Quarterfinals. From there we proceeded to a record catastrophe at the 2010 FIFA WORLD CUP in South AFrica – where we were eliminated in the group stage to global minnows New Zealand, Paraguay and Slovakia. We have gone through three managers since the 2006 FIFA WORLD CUP; Lippi left immediately following the tournament, made way for Donadoni who before unpacking his belongings was replaced by Lippi#2 who decided to implode the fabled Azzurri and leave a heaping pile of stale rubble for Prandelli to sort out. We are currently in a transition and the latest call-ups (which we’ll get to momentarily) are indicative of that fact.

Germany: FIFA ranking #3

Quite a different story to that of the Italians. The Germans have been on the rise since the 2006 FIFA WORLD CUP. German football in the build up to the 2006 FIFA WORLD CUP and in preparation of that tournament began a complete reorganization from within of their goals and objectives when it came to their development of their home grown talent. Since 2006, the Germans have maintained focus on development from within and the nurturing of their youth (even if some are from Poland and others are from Turkey). At Euro 2008 the Germans returned to the finals of that competition only to be ousted by the Spaniards that year. The 2010 WORLD CUP though was their landing, when the fruits of their labour became painfully clear – Germany has a completely reformed, young, speedy, team – capable of playing very attractive football. Take a look at these results for an idea of the power of the German machine: Germany 4:1 England; Germany4:0 Argentina – Germany’s last two matches included: Germany 3:0 Turkey and Germany 3:0 Kazakhastan. When you compare such results to our own, well, I don’t think I need to say more…

THE AZZURRI:

In Goal: (C)Buffon (Juventus) Sirigu (Palermo) Viviano (Bologna)

Defence: Astori (Cagliari), Bonucci (Juventus), Cassani (Palermo), Criscito (Genoa), Chiellini (Juvenuts), Maggio (Napoli), Ranocchia (Inter)

Midfield: Aquilani (Juventus), De Rossi (Roma), Giovinco (Parma), Mauri (Lazio), Montolivo (Fiorentina), Motta (Inter), Nocerino (Palermo), Palombo (Sampdoria)

Attack: Borriello (Roma), Cassano (Milan), Matri (Juventus), Pazzini (Inter), Rossi (Villarreal)

Firstly, there are a number of new faces on this team which its safe to say deserve a part on this squad. Giovinco, Nocerino, Matri, and yes even Tiago Motta are all welcome additions to this squad. Let’s not forget that it was partly due to the obtrusive presence of Tiago Motta against Chelsea and Barca that Inter were able to hoist old Big Ears last season. Having a running interceptor like this on the pitch is exactly what we need against a high flying German team.  I’d ideally like to partner him up with DeRossi in the mid – but first let’s see what Prandelli has in mind.

Prandelli has done me a favour and announced the starters for tomorrow’s match:

Buffon;

Cassani – Bonucci – Ranocchia – Chiellini

Montolivo – Thiago Motta – De Rossi

Mauri – Pazzini – Cassano

*So far so good. But… I might be the only one in the world who isn’t convinced about Bonucci as a starting CB. Moving Chiellini out to the left makes the centre a vulnerable position – especially with an internationally untested Ranocchia (on the big stage). This back line could cause some jitters, what I would have appreciated would be Cassani – Ranocchia – Chiellini – Criscito: Although over the weekend with Chiellini lining up on the left he did do a decent job, just didn’t get forward as often as I might have liked. Our wings (imo) are strong enough to prevent penetration from the German flanks. Cassani has been tested again and again and has risen to the occasion each time – having Maggio as his understudy is also a wise change in tactic by Prandelli.

In midfield, this is exactly the combination I’d go with. Having Montolivo – Motta – DeRossi there will be enough to defuse the German attack enough to cause odd man counter attacks. I would have considered throwing in a fourth option as well. Formica Atomica Seb Giovinco on the left. He could move the ball and distribute it with pinpoint accuracy. I would have preferred him to inject speed into that midfield and a little bit of vision. Currently our mid looks too much like a brick wall.

Our attack is ideal in two positions; albeit, thus far at Milan, Cassano has failed to impress – it could be the remnants of his 2.5 month layoff from Sampdoria. Pazzini is on fire at Inter, and Mauri has been below average for the Azzurri thus far. I’d have gone with a variation of the following:

Rossi – Cassano

Pazzini

or

Cassano – Giovinco

Pazzini

Unfortunately Prandelli sees things differently here. Either way, this team seems stable enough (aside from the CB combo) to handle Ze Germans for most of the match. We have combinations here that England and Argentina didn’t put into effect, we have Central Defensive Midfielders – DeRossi and Motta will be vital for tomorrow’s match, they are charged with disrupting the the passage of play and the visionary delights of Ozil; if the Real Madrid assist machine is going to be stopped there are probably two players along with Nocerino on the bench who are capable of putting in a great effort to dispel the German advances.

Germany:

German manager Joachim Loew will be fielding a team with exceptional young talents and some brazen veteran faces from World Cup’s Past.

Goal: Rene Adler, Manuel Neuer

Defence: Dennis Aogo, Holger Badstuber, Jerome Boateng, Arne Friedrich, Mats Hummels, Philipp Lahm, Per Mertesacker, Marcel Schmelzer, Heiko Westermann

Midfield: Sven Bender, Mario Gotze, Kevin Grosskreutz, Sami Khedira, Mesut Ozil, Bastian Schweinsteiger, Christian Traesch

Attack: Miroslav Klose, Thomas Muller, Lukas Podolski

Tactically, here’s what is important, this German team will likely employ 4-2-3-1 tactics against the Azzurri. For example we could see:

Lahm – Mertesacker – Hummels – Schmelzer

Khedira – Schweinsteiger

Mueller – Ozil – Podolski

Klose

Line up for the Germans. Now, when you compare that to the Azzurri counterpart, you can begin to see the significance of coming out with a very strong central defence and two capable wings in Chiellini and Cassani. However, my fear when looking at this will be the fact that Mueller – Ozil – Podolski along with Lahm could split the Italian midfield enough to create holes in the central part of the field. Prandelli will need to address something like that – which is why ideally a 4-4-2 would have worked wonders against this German team – it would have given us enough spread to cover up potential problem spots on the pitch. I maintain, although we have the quality, we may be lacking in the speed department for tomorrow’s match.

Predictions:

This could go either way for Prandelli tomorrow. We have to maintain that no matter how attractive our team looks on paper we are going up against a German squad that has 1.5 tournaments under their belt and are continuing to mesh together by the day. Our team does have a core group of players, however, with injuries and banishments from certain clubs in Genoa we have had considerable interruptions along the way when it comes to our rebuilding. I do like this team, but I feel that we haven’t had sufficient time and opportunity to become comfortable with each other just yet – at least not to the extent the Germans have. Germany will be a team that has the potential to come out of the gate tomorrow playing like a club team, a team with familiarity and comfort of playing together in front of the huge crowd in Dortmund. We have every reason to predict that our team will come out on the back foot and try and acclimatize themselves to their new surroundings. Our success will be dependant on the first 15 minutes. Will we be able to control a team that could be invigorated to attack and score  cheered on by a crowd potentially in excess of 80,000?  If we are able to diffuse the situation then we could slowly bring the game into our own, Prandelli will likely make changes to remove a number of the starters in the second half to test new players and formations – and let’s also note this one potential – if Bonucci looks uncomfortable and capable of being sent off, will Prandelli remove him or will he resort to the safer choice in removing Ranocchia and floating Chiellini back into the centre of the pitch? Such a move could tell us if Bonucci has earned that untouchable position on the Azzurri.

Also, I haven’t touched on Buffon. It’s nice to see he has returned to the fold, a leader in every sense of the word. His game has been soft since his long layoff, and he could also be an uncertain factor for the Azzurri tomorrow. A steady rock trying to discover his form of old. But not to worry, I am certain that this rock of stability will return to his better days soon; perhaps not in time for game time.

Prediction:

At the dawn of 2011 I predicted a 1:1 result to this match. Today I am predicting an exciting match full of some great moments but unfortunately it’ll be a little tainted as I am predicting the following result: Germany 2:1 Italy. Again, this result is all about where we are in terms of development. The Germans are well developed and have chemistry, we’re in the experimentation process still and playing against a home team in a stadium that could be packed to the brim with 87,000 + supporters. (Italians don’t traditionally make the trek for matches like this.)

On a side note:

I’d like to thank Julian for the bang up job around here. We’re very fortunate to have a guy as dedicated as he is to be managing this blog. I’d like to just let you all know that I have had a number of personal commitments to attend to over the last while which is why I haven’t been able to hit the blog as much as I’d like. However, I will continue to be a part of this blog and will hopefully be contributing far more to its development in the near and distant future.