Italia-France Rematch Preview

The summer holidays are over, the seasons are in full-swing, and that means the return of meaningful international games in Europe. On Saturday the San Siro will play host to Italia-France in a rematch of teams who may or may not have played in a game of moderate importance in the relatively recent past. Maybe. Due to his very very unlucky misplacement of his “Dossier of Evil”, Raymond Domenech, aka Ray Ray Dum Dum, has been suspended for the match, which is actually a good thing for France – the guy is a moron and has Zizou & Friends returning from international holiday to thank for being employed. Unfortunately for the Azzurri, the same fate was not handed to Roberto Donadoni (Azzurri Fans Under The Donadoni Regime Support Group coming soon).

To sum things up, “it’s a fairly big game.” Yeah, kinda important. What it actually means is this: a win guarantees first place in Group B and a loss really starts to put qualification in minor jeopardy. OK, bigger game now. With another game in 4 days against a very strong Ukrainian side, this is huge. Ukraine is sitting at 12pts with a game in hand and have a juggernaut to go up against this weekend in Georgia. It’s fair to say after Saturday Ukraine will be sitting pretty at 15 points and licking their chops after seeing The Don Doni’s boys get manhandled by perennial European powerhouse Hungary. To top it all off, Scotland is just a point behind with 15 pts, though Lithuania and France will be fairly competitive tussles. The current standings (that matter):

Group B
France 18pts (7GP)
Italia 16pts (7GP)
Scotland 15pts (7GP)
Ukraine 12pts (6GP)

The Squad

Keepers: Amelia (Livorno), Buffon (Juventus), Curci (Roma)

Defenders: Barzagli (Palermo), F Cannavaro (Real Madrid), Chiellini (Juventus), Gamberini (Fiorentina), Grosso (Lyon), Oddo (Milan), Panucci (Roma), Zambrotta (Barcelona)

Midfielders: Ambrosini (Milan), Aquilani (Roma), Camoranesi (Juventus), De Rossi (Roma), Foggia (Cagliari), Gattuso (Milan), Perrotta (Roma), Pirlo (Milan)

Strikers: Del Piero (Juventus), Di Natale (Udinese), F Inzaghi (Milan), C Lucarelli (Shakhtar Donetsk), Quagliarella (Udinese), Toni (Bayern Munich)

Almost definitely Italia’s best squad, minus any retirees (I’m looking at you, Francesco). No real shocking omissions, like Daniele De Rossi for the Hungary game, nor were there any real “reach” inclusions. The problem is obviously going to be injuries, as a few key names are either missing or will not be fit for the game against the Frenchies, as well as putting the Ukraine game in doubt.

As far as “somewhat surprise” inclusions go, Critiano Lucarelli has to rank up there. After years of whining about not getting his call he proceeded to crap the bed against the Faroe Islands and did nothing to convince anybody he belongs in the setup. The thought here involves two major factors: He is in the Ukrainian league now, where he has been playing for more than a month so he is in form all while learning a thing or two about those Ukrainian opponents, and the loss of Luca Toni to that freak leg injury. Being in form is self explanatory, especially when Serie A has only been running for 2 weeks and most players are still trying to find their legs. The kinda maybe absence of Tonigol for the France game means the Azzurri are missing their tall targetman, and someone that can head in a cross or two coming in from the wings. It would be a stretch to say that he starts, but he could very well see some substitute time up top and a chunk of pitch time against Ukraine.

A few other names are a little unfamiliar and surprising to some people, but deserving nonetheless. Pasquale Foggia has thrown Cagliari on his back in the first two weeks of the season, although it will take a minor disaster to see him get any meaningful pitch time. Giorgio Chiellini has been called up before, but these are pretty important games for a guy who just graduated from the U-21 setup and hasn’t exactly proven himself to be Azzurri worthy yet. He’ll ride the pine unless the emergency light goes on and TDD needs to break the glass. Christian Panucci is a surprise to some people, but he’s old reliable and very versatile nowadays, and hence invaluable with the injuries to Fabio Cannavaro and Marco Materazzi. Same goes for Alessandro Gamberini – it’s all about depth and injuries.

The Injuries

Materazzi: The Matrix is out for a long time. A real long time. His starting spot will be given to Andrea Barzagli now and he will probably have a fight to get it back when he returns.

Tonigol: Luca tweaked a leg muscle while scoring a goal for Bayern last week, and while a lot of people say it happened while celebrating, it really looked like he took a short stride and wasn’t able to extend his leg properly. Shouldn’t be much of a long-term issue, but his status for Saturday is up in the air at the moment – although team doctors are optimistic.

Canna: Suffering from a minor ankle injury and isn’t really 100%, but I do expect him to play against France.

The Tactics

Judging by past experments and the dispersion of callups throughout the squad, I think it’s fair to see TDD is looking to field either a 4-2-3-1 or a 4-3-3, hopefully the latter. France is no Hungary and Italia was embarrassed by The Ghost of Ferenc Puskas; I think it’s safe to say a slightly more defensive formation may be favored. The back line will almost assuredly consist of Canna, Barzzagli and Zambrotta, with the best guess for the remaining spot being Oddo.

No matter what formation he chooses, he will likely field a striker up top with two wing-forwards splitting out wide (if the past few games are a benchmark), which leaves 3 midfielders. If I were a betting man it would be Gattuso, Pirlo and Aquilani. THe first two are self-explanatory and King Alberto has been playing like the superstar he’s supposed to be, just a couple years early. It would be hard to defend putting his talent, form and recent results (2 stellar long range goals) on the pine. Even The Don Doni isn’t that dumb (we hope).

Up top the hope is Tonigol will be ready to continue bagging goals galore as he does so well, but that’s unknown. At this point the best guess is Pippo will get the start up top if Luca is out, hopefully keeping his offside total to under 17,000 for the game. I’d expect him to get subbed out pretty early, though. Flanking whoever should be Fab Quags and Del Piero. I tend to think FQ will get the benefit of the doubt as long as TDD is around (you know, considering he did save Donadoni’s job with those two silly silly goals against Lithuania) and all. While a lot of people think ADP’s time has passed, he has had a fairly good run of form lately, and let’s face it: he’s a much better option than Di Natale.

What the team does with those tactics is a whole different question. Obviously the offensive aspects will run through Andrea Pirlo in the midfield, while Canna will lead the defensive stand in front of Gigi Buffon, but how are they going to go about attacking the French net? The inclusion of Luca Toni brings an entirely different dynamic to the squad, both because of his own abilities and the fact that he requires opposing teams to defend differently. If he doesn’t play Pippo will be all alone, and the aerial assault from the flanks won’t be nearly as effective (see: Faroe Islands). With Aquilani and Pirlo, two gifted playmakers, the majority of the offense will probably run through their passes to cutting in wing-forwards in the shape of ADP and FQ. If we start seeing beaucoup crosses flying in from the wings towards Pippo it could get real ugly real quick. From the start of the game the best bet is the fullbacks will hold back a little bit with Canna, Barzagli and Ivan The Terrible doing their ordinary enforcing, while Pirlo and Aquilani sit behind the forwards while they try to clog the box. One of the biggest help factors in all of this will be those two goals King Alberto scored from distance in the first two weeks of the season which have surely been featured on every highlight reel throughout Europe. His ability to score at will from distance should force some defenders to push up a little more to close down shooting lanes or midfielders to sit back a little deeper than usual. Then all it takes is one time for a lane to open up for a forward cutting in.

Projected Starting XI:

Probably wrong. In fact, probably real wrong, but here goes:

Gigi Buffon;
Oddo, Barzagli, Canna, Zambrotta;
Gattuso, Aquilani, Pirlo;
Quagliarella, Toni, Del Piero.

Predictions:

Score: 2-1 Azzurri
Goals: Toni (28), Henry (59), Aquilani (67).
MOTM: Pirlo

And if the Azzurri take only one point from the next two games, or if qualification comes into jeopardy in any way, I think we might be bumping into Roberto Donadoni in the unemployment line. It has to happen eventually, he’s just not good at all.

Fuel for the Fire:

As if Ray Ray Dum Dum’s comments about cheating Italians needed to give us any more ammo, Lassana Diarra has decided it just wasn’t enough:

“Everyone knows the reputation the Italians have is of cheats and provokers.”

Yes, everybody does know that. Is it a requirement to have a double digit IQ to get picked for Les Bleus? Seriously, kick some French ass fellas. And if you don’t, I suppose we do still have something to hang our hats on:

CAMPIONI DEL MONDO