The Azzurri XII March on Swissaustria

XII

And so it begins. Greece may be the defending European Champions, but the Azzurri are The Champions, and thus have a reputation to uphold. They walk up against the Oranje as a country expected to challenge for the title, and at the very least put on a performance befitting of a team which took on and conquered all comers in Germany two years ago.

The men in blue take on a Dutch team missing much of its most dynamic attacking talent, wielding a back line which performed admirably at the least in qualifying, yet looks utterly undaunting on paper. It’s safe to say that while the men will take this as a difficult game against a difficult team, there’s a great sense of confidence among the fans. A confidence which is justified. They’ve got the experience. They’ve got the history. They’ve got the technique. They’ve got the talent. They have what they need to firmly place in the final piece of the puzzle: execution.

But more than anything, they come in as a team. Returning so many from the squad in 2006 has allowed those fortunate enough to be considered campioni to invoke a wealth of knowledge upon the others. They were a team then and they’re a team now; they’ll form one cohesive unit. Technique plus will, tactics and desire, sacrificing the success of one for the good of the group. Donadoni may be the coach, but we’ll see a little bit of Lippi this evening. Eleven men, playing for a single cause.

It might be enough, but they have one more.

Fabio Cannavaro will be there, an idle spectator, but still the leader. Not a single member on this squad wants to walk back to the bench after 90 minutes with a hung head, unable to bear letting down their captain. They’ll win this one for Canna. Better yet, they’ll win this one with Canna. This is still his team, and as long as he is leading the charge, whether it be from the bench or central defense, he won’t allow anything less.

Now they play with twelve. The Azzurri XII.

Qualifying

Italia: 9-2-1, 22gf, 9ga, +13

Netherlands: 8-2-2, 15gf, 5ga, +10

You know, for a team with an attack featuring a host of big, relatively frightening names, fifteen goals in twelve games ain’t all that impressive. What’s more, they scored only five away from the cozy confines of Hilly Holland, conceding four. Tournaments are different but…..that’s not a terrible stat for the boys, is it?

Squads

Italia:

Goalkeepers: Gianluigi Buffon (Juventus), Marco Amelia (Livorno), Morgan De Sanctis (Sevilla)

Defenders: Marco Materazzi (Internazionale), Christian Panucci (Roma), Andrea Barzagli (Wolfsburg), Gianluca Zambrotta (Milan), Giorgio Chiellini (Juventus), Fabio Grosso (Lyon), Alessandro Gamberini (Fiorentina)

Midfielders: Andrea Pirlo (Milan), Gennaro Gattuso (Milan), Massimo Ambrosini (Milan), Daniele De Rossi (Roma), Simone Perrotta (Roma), Alberto Aquilani (Roma), Mauro Camoranesi (Juventus)

Forwards: Luca Toni (Bayern Munich), Alessandro Del Piero (Juventus), Antonio Di Natale (Udinese), Marco Borriello (Milan), Fabio Quagliarella (Udinese), Antonio Cassano (Sampdoria)

Italian Squad Numbers:

1 Gianluigi Buffon
2 Christian Panucci
3 Fabio Grosso
4 Giorgio Chiellini
5 Fabio Cannavaro Alessandro Gamberini
6 Andrea Barzagli
7 Alessandro Del Piero
8 Gennaro Gattuso
9 Luca Toni
10 Daniele De Rossi
11 Antonio Di Natale
12 Marco Borriello
13 Massimo Ambrosini
14 Marco Amelia
15 Fabio Quagliarella
16 Mauro Camoranesi
17 Morgan De Sanctis
18 Antonio Cassano
19 Gianluca Zambrotta
20 Simone Perrotta
21 Andrea Pirlo
22 Alberto Aquilani
23 Marco Materazzi

Netherlands:

Goalkeepers: Edwin van der Sar (Manchester United), Maarten Stekelenburg (Ajax Amsterdam), Henk Timmer (Feyenoord)

Defenders: Wilfred Bouma (Aston Villa), Tim de Cler (Feyenoord), John Heitinga (Ajax), Joris Mathijsen (Hamburg), Mario Melchiot (Wigan), Andre Ooijer (Blackburn Rovers), Khalid Boulahrouz (Chelsea)

Midfielders: Ibrahim Afellay (PSV Eindhoven), Giovanni van Bronckhorst (Feyenoord), Orlando Engelaar (Twente Enschede), Nigel de Jong (Hamburg), Wesley Sneijder (Real Madrid), Rafael van der Vaart (Hamburg), Demy de Zeeuw (AZ Alkmaar)

Forwards: Klaas Jan Huntelaar (Ajax), Dirk Kuyt (Liverpool), Ruud van Nistelrooy (Real Madrid), Robin van Persie (Arsenal), Arjen Robben (Real Madrid), Jan Vennegoor of Hesselink (Celtic).

Netherlands numbers are here.

Key Injuries

Italia: We all know about Canna, and there’s really no reason to revisit that. Christian Panucci’s injury looked like it was more bark than bite, so he should be ready and available should they need a late game header on a set piece to win it.

Netherlands: This thing reads like a fantacalcio roll call. Ryan Babel tore some ligaments so he’s gone for the duration, while Robin van Persie and Arjen Robben are also hurt and out for a stretch apiece. Holy. Shit. What a shocker. But really, that’s great news for the Azzurri. Three of their most dynamic talents are on the shelf. Plus the one of the men I fear most in Europe (check his trophy cabinet) has pulled out in Clarence Seedorf. Could you ask for more?

Also, Mario Melchiot is not yet 100%. So either it’s a backup for a less than frightening backline or it’s Mario Melchiot at less than full strength. Win-win baby.

Projected Lineup

I’m not even going to bother with the Netherlands, so let’s take a gander at the Azzurri:

Buffon;
Panucci, Materazzi, Barzagli, Zambro;
Gattuso, Pirlo, De Rossi;
Camoranesi, Toni, Di Natale.

A Euro preview mag had an interview with The Don featuring one question I thought was fairly telling:

“What type of fireworks will we see at the finals?”

If there are going to be any fireworks, I suspect we’ll see them only when the football is over, at the medals ceremony.

Anyone else think he’s going into the Group O’Death with caution to the wind? Nor I. The tridente attack is likely the most risk Donadoni will take. RobDon displayed a great deal of conservative tactical thinking during the qualifiers, and now the task is nothing but more difficult. Expect more of the same.

At this point all signs point to Materazzi and Barzagli in the back, but we could be surprised when the lineup comes out and really, there is no truly disappointing option to select from in the back. Grosso or Panucci, Panucci or Grosso? Reports say it’ll likely be Grosso, logic says it’ll be the more defensive Panucci. The biggest point of debate has been who will suit up in the midfield: DDR or Gattuso? My best guess? Both. Donadoni has never shied away from using the Milan midfield, Pirlo plus two out and out defensive mids. De Rossi is a defensive midfielder by trade, but he has a helluva attacking arsenal as well. The fact that he has to sit so deep in Roma’s 4-2-3-1 limits his ability to dazzle, but he can. True box-to-box, so while it may be conservative, it’s not like they’re hauling the team plane onto the pitch. Of course, Aquilani is a possibility and then there’s always the possibility of the Milan midfield rearing its ugly head again. Because, well, you know. Up top it’s hard to believe it’ll be anything but Camo, Luca and Toto. All three are playing too well and too well together. Sorry, Tony. (Now keep it in check.)

Off the bench will almost certainly be down to tactics, scoreline, etc. But there are a few guys more likely such as Del Piero, Aquilani and Perrotta (particularly if the Azzurri are ahead). If they’re behind, perhaps a Mr. Bullshit Goal sighting (that’s Fab Quags). Time will tell.

Key Matchups

Back Four Sans Canna v Dutch Attack Sans Damn Near Everyone: I have a great deal of respect for the Dutch attack as it stands, really do, but Arjen Robben and Ryan Babel are absolute difference makers. Whereas Sneijder and Van der Vaart are very creative, Robben and Babel provide burning pace and tricks on the fly which are much more difficult for the cerebral Italian defense to deal with. Not that they couldn’t, it’s just a bit more difficult. (This leaves Donadoni a little more leeway when selecting the fullbacks also.)

You can break it down tactically all you want. But the fact is the more they limit the balls to the feet of Sneijder and Van der Vaart, the better off they’ll be, because doing that will also limit the chances Ruud van Horseyface or Klaas Jan Huntelaar get chances on goal. The back line has a straightforward job, but whatever help the defensive mids can give in scooping up balls in transition and tackling all comers will go a long way in helping the back; and the longer Pirlo can sit on the ball, the better.

Who says Pirlo can’t play D?

Dutch Defense v Luca Toni & Friends: You know it. I know it. The Dutch know it. Their Achilles heel is their backline, a motley crew to say the least. Underrated? Unheralded? Solid? Sure, why not. Guess what? They ain’t playing Romania, Bulgaria, Belarus, Albania, Slovenia or Luxenbourg. End of.

Dutch Right v Italian Left: With all the injuries I haven’t the faintest who will play on the right, but I can say with the potential duo of Grosso and Di Natale running the flanks, it is a bit worrisome. Whoever is playing on Pirlo’s left (pick ‘em), will have a long day ahead of them if this is the case. And they’re going to need an oxygen tank after the game.

Italia v History: This one is painfully simple, you cannot afford to be a slow starter in a Group O’Death.

Donadoni In Qualifying v Donadoni In Swissaustria: On the same note, perhaps the slow start in qualifying (which is code for “World Cup hangover”) will turn out to be a good thing in the end. It forced a less-than-comfy cozy late road in the run up to Swissaustria, and it was by far the most pressure Donadoni has ever experienced in his career. Genoa and Livorno aren’t even in the same galaxy as coaching the Azzurri, placing him into qualification devoid of big game coaching experience. Now he’s had a taste of what it’s like to be under massive pressure, in a run of games he absolutely must win, non-negotiable. With this came lessons he’ll be able to put to use during these three games and, hopefully, throughout the victorious sixth.

Difficult times create strength. Perhaps this was exactly what Donadoni needed.

Inspiration

Though not even close to the same level, in 2006 they had Gianluca Pessotto, a figure to rally around and win for….

….now it’s Canna.

For him.

Predictions

More than anything, I think they need to play this game tight, compact and very, very slowly. Maintain possession and allow the creative talents of the Netherlands (RvdV and Sneijder) as little ball time as possible while keeping the number of set pieces conceded within range of Ruud’s head down – a task much more difficult than it sounds.

I think this is the time when Donadoni’s conservative thinking will really pay off. Italy for a solid, comfortable but unaesthetic victory.

Score: 2-0
Scorers: Pirlo (37), Camo (51)
MOTM: Fabio Cannavaro

When: 2045 CET
Where: Berne, Switzerland
Streaming: Here
Liveblog: I’ll be doing one one on the front page – extremely biased, of course.

FORZA ITALIA