Last Chance Saloon

One major tournament game into the soon to be finished Roberto Donadoni Era, we’re already watching the team enter the land of no return: at the absolute worst they have to take a point or else it’s curtains. Lose the game and this will be the worst performance in House of Savoy blue ever. Ever. Much less coming off a World Cup title. Never has an Azzurri team lost the first two games of a major tournament; the last time they lost twice in the group stages was 1966. We may all have short and unpleasant memories of Monday, but this game has potentially historic implications. Safe to say, not a single player on this team wants a part of that infamy. Will it translate? Wait and see.

The game against the Netherlands has been analyzed ad nauseam. Everyone knows what went wrong, where it began and with whom the most problem lies. Start at the top and start filtering the blame, because though the greatest slice of the pie may reside in the coach’s seat, everyone got a piece on Monday, aside from perhaps the substitutes who were brought on about 20 minutes too late. The defense was abysmal, the midfield was wholly ineffective and this vaunted “tridente” we’ve heard so much about spent much of the game playing cards in the locker room, because they were invisible.

A few things need to be tightened up immediately tactically and in terms of personnel, that much is obvious; but first, they need some fire. They played like a team resting on the fact that they’re World Champions, not actual World Champions. Obviously forcing guys into roles in a system they’re not particularly suited for doesn’t help, but the simple desire to win didn’t seem to take over until they’d entered the stage of the game dubbed “mere formality”.

This squad will have to win for that little thing that they’re so privileged to be able to wear, that “little” logo you see over there to the left. The one adorned with four golden stars, marking four golden teams made of champions. Time to play, coach and compete like they deserve to wear such a historic shirt.

Rosters

Italia:
1 Gianluigi Buffon
2 Christian Panucci
3 Fabio Grosso
4 Giorgio Chiellini
5 Fabio Cannavaro Alessandro Gamberini
6 Andrea Barzagli
7 Alessandro Del Piero
8 Gennaro Gattuso
9 Luca Toni
10 Daniele De Rossi
11 Antonio Di Natale
12 Marco Borriello
13 Massimo Ambrosini
14 Marco Amelia
15 Fabio Quagliarella
16 Mauro Camoranesi
17 Morgan De Sanctis
18 Antonio Cassano
19 Gianluca Zambrotta
20 Simone Perrotta
21 Andrea Pirlo
22 Alberto Aquilani
23 Marco Materazzi

Romania:

1 Bogdan Lobonţ
2 Cosmin Contra
3 Răzvan Raţ
4 Gabriel Tamaş
5 Cristian Chivu
6 Mirel Rădoi
7 Florentin Petre
8 Paul Codrea
9 Ciprian Marica
10 Adrian Mutu
11 Răzvan Cociş
12 Marius Cornel Popa
13 Cristian Sapunaru
14 Sorin Ghionea
15 Dorin Goian
16 Bănel Nicoliţă
17 Cosmin Moti
18 Marius Niculae
19 Adrian Cristea
20 Nicolae Dică
21 Daniel Niculae
22 Ştefan Radu
23 Eduard Stăncioiu

Key Injuries

Italia: One of the few good outcomes from the Netherlands match: no one wound up seriously injured.

Romania: None that are known.

Projected Lineup

This, more than anything, is the key. What we all hope is for changes. It appears that’ll be the case:

“There will be four or five players who will play tomorrow who did not play in Berne.”

Four or five who didn’t play or didn’t start? Big difference. After all, the only outfield players who didn’t play are Gamberini, Chiellini, De Rossi, Aquilani, Perrotta and Borriello plus keepers. I can’t see the entire Roman midfield making it in there along with Chiellini, nor can we really see Gamberini or Borriello playing. Gamby maybe, but that’s a big maybe. So we can probably assume it’s four or five who didn’t start.

To break it down, let’s start in the back:

GK: Buffon is obvious. If Donadoni blames the 3 goals on him and starts Amelia, which I’m sure he won’t, the players will refuse to walk on the pitch.

RB/LB: Panucci looked terrible on the right and was exposed horrendously on the counter – a great worry against the left-based Mutu, and one of Romania’s greatest strengths aside from the Romanian team plane concept. Combine this with the fact that Fabio Grosso looked pretty damn good after his sub, plus Zambro looking infinitely better on the right, and you have a Grosso-Zambro partnership.

CB: Chiellini is starting, and he should, which leaves his partner up for debate. Panucci looked what he typically is, solid, in the back after moving over from the right, while Barzagli had far from his best game. What we can assume is the Materazzi is out. He’s done. Cooked. What we watched on Monday was the end of his international career. Probably the only person willing to give him a cap after this will be Papa Beppe, if that. Gamberini? Surprised, not shocked if he makes it into the XI. Most likely you can pick ‘em between Panucci and Barzagli. And with that….my, how the mighty have fallen. This is not your father’s Azzurri central defense. (Can he call up Maldini?)

CM: Pirlo eight days a week, while everyone and their mother thinks Daniele De Rossi will be given a start. It seems almost imperative. Of course, we all thought the same thing last game. For all the speculation, I have absolutely no clue what to think here. We very well might see the Milan midfield again. We also may see De Rossi and Ambrosini. Or De Rossi and Perrotta. Or Gattuso and Aquilani. Or Gattusso and Perrotta. Or whatever. This one has no point for debate until we see the lineups.

However, what we can say is that Romania is not going to push a dynamic attack forward much, if at all, and typically they’ll do so on the flanks (from what I’ve seen – which I suppose is a vote for Perrotta). Having a guy who can contribute in some way or form to the offensive game would help dramatically (say Aquilani with his passing and cannon right foot or Perrotta and his bombing off the ball runs before clinically booting the ball to Saturn). Doesn’t mean it’ll happen though.

Attack: Luca is still the only choice to line up top, and we now know that Del Piero will start “more centrally” to support Toni and presumably get the captain’s band. It looks like the 4-3-3 is being shelved, and it’s about damn time. There needs to be another link, if not two, between Pirlo and Toni. Something which should have been realized in early 2007, but that’s neither here nor there. Di Natale? Seems a likely choice for Donadoni, but…

Don’s gotta start Talentino. Unfathomably skilled, overwhelmingly creative and bluntly better than any other option. He’s the best talent on the team and the only man capable of taking this team to its optimal level. For all the talk of De Rossi, Cassano is the only one who can single-handedly win a game by himself. They’ll need a master lock picker against Romania, and he’s the best they’ve got from that position in the field. Can you just feel the creativity dripping off a team featuring Pirlo and Cassano? For all intents and purposes, this is a must win game. For morale, for likelihood of advancement, they’ve simply got to win this game. If you’re going to bring your best player, start him. There’s no other choice.

That, of course, doesn’t mean it’s going to happen. Rumors suggest such, but one never knows what, if anything, is bouncing around Donadoni’s head.

My XI:

Buffon;
Zambro, Panucci, Chiellini, Grosso;
De Rossi, Pirlo, Aquilani;
Cassano;
Del Piero, Toni.

Is that what we’re going to see? Could be, with the two spots most likely to change Aquilani and Cassano – as imperative as Cassano is, it’s hard to put any faith in Donadoni’s decision making abilities at this point. He also won’t bow to the media pressure calling him to start De Rossi, but at this point he has to realize the caliber of player he’s got at his disposal. (Right? Please say right…)

Matchups

They need to say fuck matchups and play like champions. Be smart tactically, but play to win. Forget Donadoni, forget his gameplan and go out and play like you played in Germany. There are enough on the team to know what that is. Just play like champions. It’s what you’re supposed to be, so play like it.

When: 1800 CET
Where: Zurich, Switzerland
Streaming: Here
Liveblog: I’ll be doing one one on the front page.

FORZA ITALIA