Azzurri – Les Bleus…Again

Let’s get one thing straight. This is not a “rematch”. Rematches that matter only happen on equal planes. Euro games, and Euro qualifying games for that matter, are still leagues and leagues away from the World Cup Final. This is quite different.

While not a rematch, it damn sure is a must win game. There is the possibility that a draw could see the Azzurri through with the right scorelines, but that’s a long shot and something they’d rather not rely upon. The boys need to win and they need the Netherlands to take a point for everything to go smoothly. It’s not a huge task, but it’s never a good thing to have your fate residing in someone else’s hands, which wouldn’t be the case had the linesman not screwed over the Azzurri against Romania. Three points and they’d only need a draw. Ah, what should have been…

So they march up against France, a bit improved since the Netherlands but still a bit disjointed having what looks to be zero continuity in personnel or tactics. I was on the fence regarding the one friendly because of injuries (something they could ill-afford, as we’ve seen with Canna), but it’s quite clear Donadoni needed at least two, possibly seventeen to get his feet wet. Of course, that may not have made a difference. But we’ll never know. What we do know right now is…nothing. No clue on the lineup, and there was one particular rumor which could literally mean the shit has hit the fan: Pirlo to be benched in favor of Massimo Ambrosini.

Of course, there’s almost zero chance this rumor is legitimate and Andrea himself has stated he’ll “certainly” be included, but would anyone put this past Donadoni? Seriously? If Roberto does somehow grab his grapefruits and make the call to bench Pirlo, I’m pretty sure I’ll be doing life in a Zurich prison.

The glimmering silver lining is that Roberto Donadoni finally has a match who can fall to his level in Raymond Domenech. And with everything left to play for, that’s all we can ask. This has surely been a disappointing campaign thus far, with the tactical incompetence of the coach and the refereeing to match unfortunately coming to represent the players on the field. These players are not, however, on those levels. Many are champions who are not being put in the right position to succeed. What they need more than anything today is simple complexity. Italian tactics and techniques, and for the on-pitch leadership to take over. Trust their instincts.

What’s sad is that for some of these this may be their last game in the shirt, whether it be by age or circumstance, this could be it. To have worked so hard to be a part of such an elite group and have it all fall apart in this manner is not what these men want. Guys like Panucci and Materazzi are getting very old, and Panucci is undoubtedly done if the reported regime returns. Even Ambrosini or Di Natale could find themselves out of favor again with a new tactical setup in place and new blood on the horizon in the form of Chiellini, Aquilani, Giovinco, Montolivo and Rosina. As well as some shocking exclusions or premature retirements, both of which have certainly been seen before.

As hard as it will be to appreciate this game while nervously checking the scores of Romania-Netherlands, it’s one that we should. Some of these guys may never been seen in azzurro again.

But let’s hope we get to see them on Sunday.

Standings/Scenario

1 Netherlands 2 6 6
2 Romania 2 0 2
3 France 2 -3 1
4 Italy 2 -3 1

Scenarios:

From the BBC (grab a beverage and your thinking cap):

The Netherlands have won Group C and will play the Group D runners-up in the quarter-finals.

Romania will qualify for the quarter-finals if they beat the Netherlands, eliminating France and Italy.

If Romania fail to beat the Netherlands, the winner of France v Italy will go through.

If France and Italy draw, a point against the Netherlands would be enough to send Romania through. France must win to have any chance of qualifying.

If France and Italy share a score draw (1-1, 2-2, 3-3 etc), Italy will go through if Romania lose (by any score). In this scenario, Italy, Romania and France will be level on two points each but Italy would have scored more goals in games between the 3 teams.

Romania will finish bottom of the group if they lose and France and Italy draw 2-2, 3-3 or 4-4. France will finish bottom if they draw 1-1 unless Romania lose 3-0 or by a four-goal margin.

If France and Italy draw 0-0, Romania can lose by one goal, two goals or by a three-goal margin other than 3-0 but still qualify. In this scenario, Italy and Romania would have identical head-to-head records, but Romania would have better goal difference in ALL group matches or, in the case of the three-goal defeats, goals scored. France would finish bottom, having scored fewer goals head-to-head v Italy and Romania.

If Romania lose 3-0 to the Dutch, Italy would qualify with a 0-0 draw against France because of their superior coefficient points. France would finish bottom as they would have scored fewer goals head-to-head v Italy and Romania.

If Romania lose by four goals or more and the other game ends 0-0, Italy would proceed with a better overall goal difference than Romania. France would finish bottom as they would have scored fewer goals head-to-head v Italy and Romania.

Everybody got that on lock? Good. Now here comes the most miserable news you’re going to hear until the lineups are announced:

If France and Italy draw AND Romania avoid defeat, then Romania go through. France and Italy will have identical records and a unprecedented penalty shoot-out will decide who finishes third and fourth.

Kill me now.

Squads

Italia:

1 Gianluigi Buffon
2 Christian Panucci
3 Fabio Grosso
4 Giorgio Chiellini
5 Alessandro Gamberini
6 Andrea Barzagli
7 Alessandro Del Piero
8 Gennaro Gattuso
9 Luca Toni
10 Daniele De Rossi
11 Antonio Di Natale
12 Marco Borriello
13 Massimo Ambrosini
14 Marco Amelia
15 Fabio Quagliarella
16 Mauro Camoranesi
17 Morgan De Sanctis
18 Antonio Cassano
19 Gianluca Zambrotta
20 Simone Perrotta
21 Andrea Pirlo
22 Alberto Aquilani
23 Marco Materazzi

France:

1 Steve Mandanda
2 Jean-Alain Boumsong
3 Eric Abidal
4 Patrick Vieira
5 William Gallas
6 Claude Makelele
7 Florent Malouda
8 Nicolas Anelka
9 Karim Benzema
10 Sidney Govou
11 Samir Nasri
12 Thierry Henry
13 Patrice Evra
14 François Clerc
15 Lilian Thuram
16 Sébastien Frey
17 Sébastien Squillaci
18 Bafétimbi Gomis
19 Willy Sagnol
20 Jérémy Toulalan
21 Lassana Diarra
22 Franck Ribéry
23 Grégory Coupet

Projected XI

Changes on the horizon. Namely in midfield, which was the least of the worries last game (though Pirlo could stand to play a full 90 on form this time around), and up top. Gigi plus the back four seem fairly set in stone at this point, provided someone acts as a sweeper to clean up Zambrotta’s back passes. In midfield De Rossi won his spot while we pray to all that is powerful in this world that Pirlo gets the start he says he’s gonna get…or else Donadoni will never be allowed another job within the peninsula (if that’s still a possibility). After that the third spot, assuming it’ll be three across midfield, is the one up in the air. Could be any of the four remaining central mids in Gattuso, Perrotta, Aquilani or Ambrosini. Feel free to bicker amongst yourselves because I don’t want to touch that one.

After that it’s once again anyone’s guess outside of Signor Toni. Del Piero got his one chance to shine and failed while Camoranesi probably won a berth in the XI against Romania, though he’s still not entirely sure what position that is, leaving just one spot. Everyone’s saying Cassano……

Predicting/Hoping:

Buffon;
Zambrotta, Panucci, Chiellini, Grosso;
De Rossi, Pirlo, Aquilani;
Camo, Cassano;
Toni.

Who knows though.

Key Matchups

Domenech v Donadoni: Finally, we’ve got a fighting chance. A coach who is just as incompetent as our beloved Donadoni has been brought to match wits. I can’t wait until Donadoni brings on Del Piero for Camo, prompting Domenech to bring on Gomis for Malouda and stick his tongue out at Signor Don. Roberto becomes so enraged at being trumped he then brings on Ambrosini for Toni & Cassano before ripping off his suit to reveal a half-Milan, half-Azzurri 1990 kit, then running onto the pitch while shouting “GLORY DAYS…BRINGIN’ BACK ‘90….GLORY DAYS….BRINGIN’ BACK GLI INVINCIBILI!!!!”.

* – There have many photos with Berto knocking the ball around this week…don’t think this scenario hasn’t crossed my mind with dread.

Luca Toni v The Carcass of Lillian Thuram: Say what you want about Materazzi, but at least he ain’t Thuram. Ho-lee Shit. You know when an athlete is so far past his day it’s just brutal to watch? That’s Thuram right now. Luca could and should have a field day here even though he’s far from fleet of foot himself, and finally bulge the net.

Malouda & Ribery v Zambrotta & Grosso: Smart money says Grosso will start after his great game against Romania, but one never knows what bit of tactical genius Donadoni will unleash for us this day. So you’ve got Franck Ribery, some argue the best player in the world, and Florent Malouda, who’s is a, um, winger, I guess. Can’t say I’ve heard great things about his play lately. And the Azzurri have two fullbacks who love to get forward. Nice. I’m going to need an adult diaper for tomorrow.

Cassano v Everybody: Listen, Donadoni. Kid walks onto the pitch and he’s the best player there. Best player. Got it? This is the only chance you have left to salvage some sort of credibility, some prayer of finding employment once you’re fired the moment you step back on Italian soil. Start him. Say fuck it. Give him free reign on the ball and let him do what he does best: play football. It may not be the only choice you’ve got, but it’s damn sure the best. Start him.

History

Everybody remember the last game Italia played against France in a major tournament? Thought so.

Whatever happens, two more years as campioni del mondo.

Prediction

I predict that I’ll be too scared to make a prediction between now and the opening whistle. What I do predict, however, is that whatever happens, this team will be better for it at the end of the day. Either they go through and we get some more Azzurri action, or they go home and Donadoni is canned post-haste, leaving a real opportunity to defend the title in 2010 (with Marcello). It’ll be a real nail-biter, but there is a silver lining to this one.

When: 2045 CET
Where: Zurich, Switzerland
Streaming: Here
Liveblog: I’ll be assisting with one one on the front page; sadly, this one has to be dually represented.

FORZA ITALIA